2026 Sector Outlook: US Grocery Retailing—Volume Growth To Remain Constrained amid Cautious Consumer Spending

2026 Sector Outlook: US Grocery Retailing—Volume Growth To Remain Constrained amid Cautious Consumer Spending

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Primary Analyst:
Sujeet Naik, Analyst
Contributors
Primary Analyst:
Sujeet Naik, Analyst
Sector Lead: Anand Kumar, Associate Director of Retail Research
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Reasons to Read

Our 2026 Sector Outlook data graphics provide forward-looking data, insights and conclusions for US retail sectors. Across the series of 10 snapshots, we cover US retail (overall); apparel and footwear; beauty; consumer packaged goods (CPG); department stores; drugstores; grocery; home and home improvement; luxury; and mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs and discount stores.

Discover how value, health, and AI are reshaping the US grocery sector in 2026.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • How are alternative grocery channels, like mass merchandisers and discount stores, impacting traditional grocers’ market share?
  • Why is private-label growth becoming a key driver of retailer success, enhancing margins and consumer loyalty?
  • How will AI, data and automation improve pricing, supply chain efficiency and labor scheduling for grocery retailers?
  • What’s the influence of health-driven consumer trends, such as the rise of GLP-1 medications, on grocery product demand?
  • How will ongoing tariff challenges affect grocery pricing and sourcing in 2026?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Walmart, Aldi and Fresh Thyme.

Data in this report include: US grocery retail market size and growth forecasts, consumer behavior shifts due to inflation.

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