Flash ReportNational Retail Federation Forecasts 2019 US Holiday Sales Growth of 3.8%–4.2% Coresight Research October 4, 2019 Executive SummaryThe National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2019 US holiday forecast. The NRF expects spending in November and December to increase by 3.8%-4.2% year over year, taking total sales to between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion. The NRF’s forecast aligns with Coresight Research’s estimate of 4% growth for November and December. The NRF’s 2019 forecast is above the five-year historical holiday average of 3.7. The solid forecast reflects that the US economy is continuing to grow and that consumer spending is the primary engine behind the growth, according to Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO. The impacts of tariffs on holiday spending are unknown, as some merchandise was subject to tariffs that took effect September 1, and other products will have tariffs applied on December 15. Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years. Please Login to read the full report. Not a member? To access this content for free, register for a free account. This document was generated for Other research you may be interested in: Analyst Corner: Chinese Consumers Still Embrace International Brands—If Those Brands Deliver: Three Key Findings from a New Study, with John HarmonWeekly US Store Openings and Closures Tracker 2026, Week 2: Saks Files for Bankruptcy; Macy’s To Close More Stores; Amazon Plans New SuperstoreConsumer Sentiment Reaches Its Lowest Level; Tariff Pessimism and Inflation Awareness Increases: US Consumer Survey InsightsUS Store Tracker Extra, August 2025: At Home, Claire’s and Office Depot Closures Add 4+ Million Square Feet to Total Closed Retail Space
