US-China Trade Issues: As Trade Talks Resume, Is a Resolution In Sight?

Executive Summary

We look at recent developments in the US-China trade dispute and implications for agriculture.

• On June 29, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the on the sidelines of the G20 summit and agreed to resume trade talks, leading to a temporary truce.
• The US committed to not levying additional tariffs on the $250 billion worth of Chinese imports already subject to a 25% levy, not to impose taiffs on a further $300 billion worth of Chinese goods that had previously been threatened with tariffs and a softened stance on Huawei. China promised to increase agricultural product purchases from the US.
• On July 4, China announced its position that all existing (additional) US tariffs must be removed as part of a deal, but the US insists some must remain as leverage to ensure China follows the terms of the deal.
• As a result, US agricultural exports are projected to fall some $1.9 billion in 2019, led by declining sales to China.