Reasons to Read

In the US, the grocery real estate market is becoming increasingly polarized, with physical expansion concentrated at the extremes: Value-focused retailers, such as discounters and dollar stores, continue to grow aggressively, while fresh-format and specialty grocers are scaling up to serve shoppers seeking fresher, healthier offerings. In contrast, traditional grocers have seen stagnation or contractions in their store footprint.

Ahead of our 2025 Market Navigator on US grocery retailing, we explore the key real estate trends and themes we are watching in the space, including the polarization in openings, tighter real estate supply leading to lower vacancy rates and higher rents, and Amazon’s push into the physical grocery space, among others.

Data in this research report include:

• Total sales for the US grocery market, 2020–2029E
• Store counts and footprint CAGRs of major grocery retailers in the US, June 2021–June 2025
• Total store openings and closures for the entire US grocery sector, 2019–2025 YTD
• Visit share of grocery retail segments in the US, 1Q21–1Q25

Companies mentioned in this report include: Aldi, Amazon, Costco Wholesale Club, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Grocery Outlet, Sprouts Farmers Market, Trader Joe’s and Walmart.

Other relevant research:

• Market Navigator: US Grocery Retailing—Igniting Unit Growth in a Low-Inflation Environment
• US Grocery Retailing—Themes, Concepts and Innovators: Opportunities Ahead Amid Increased Market Concentration
• US Grocery—Retail 2025 Sector Outlook: Volume Growth Headwinds To Continue
• Visit the Coresight Research Food, Grocery and CPG Retail Hub to explore sector data, reports and company profiles.