US vs. China Store Shutdown and Reopening Timeline—Where Is the US Now?

Week one: China’s store closures started around the week of January 19–25, 2020. The picture of the mall shutdown in China is complex with some malls closing from January 23 (such as in Wuhan) but others only reducing their operating hours.

• Stores in the US began to close in the second week of March (8–14).

Week two: China’s store closures peaked in the week of January 26–February 1 (around 12,157 stores closed).

• Store shutdowns in the US began in earnest in the third week of March (15–21), which saw the largest number of individual store closures.
• Around 250 malls were shut down in the US in the same week—those operated by Simon Property Group, the largest mall operator in the country—and other malls followed suit soon after.
• All nonessential stores were closed across 46 states by April 4.

Week four: China’s store reopenings began in the week of February 9–15 and peaked in week seven (March 1–7), with around 12,340 stores reopening. The store reopening process took around seven weeks in China.

• The shutdown in the US is now in its eighth week and is therefore continuing for longer than in China. We estimate that the shutdown could last for around three months from the week of March 15–21, when most US retailers implemented store closures. We expect to see a slower process to recovery in the US, because the nation saw a more gradual shutdown and generally implemented less severe restrictions than China.

US retailers had originally planned to reopen stores from week four (March 29–April 4), but most have officially changed this expectation to “until further notice.” However, we also note that select stores are reopening, as some states are relaxing lockdown measures as of April 28.

Given our expectation of a three-month shutdown from mid-March—the peak time of store closures—the US might see substantial store reopenings from around week 10, May 10–16. Notably, guidance for closures varies from state to state, so it could be that the rate of reopenings is staggered across the country.

Coronavirus Timeline: Store Closures and Reopenings, US vs. China

Source: Coresight Research